Strategic Decisions Under Pressure

When a logistics company faces the question “do we expand or protect what we have?”, the answer isn’t obvious — and it’s rarely clean.

It was a case where a mid-sized firm in the transport sector debated acquiring a smaller player operating in a neighboring country. On paper, the numbers made sense. Growth, market access, economies of scale. But underneath, it was a risk play — involving cultural differences, fleet integration, and unclear regulatory terrain.

The real turning point came when the CFO built two simple scenarios:

• Keep current operations stable and optimize for margin.

• Expand, with all the upfront cost and complexity it brings.

What shifted the conversation wasn’t a killer spreadsheet or an emotional pitch — it was the realization that the timing could be staged. Instead of choosing all or nothing, they mapped out an approach to test routes via partnerships before committing to full acquisition.

That decision — to sequence instead of leap — didn’t just reduce risk. It opened room for learning. And that’s what strategy often is: not choosing the biggest move, but making the one you can learn from fastest.